For those of you have yet to try the ludicrously easy video sharing service, Qik – your author included until last night – you will be amazed at just how easy and addictive video blogging has become. Sure we’ve seen the signs for years now – facebook experimenting with video posts, a few quirky twitter video widgets, but until Qik hit the scene, there was no compelling service pulling it all together. What’s more, the ‘twitter-esque’ rise of the Web 2.0 offering has just announced its full integration directly into the facebook video service – a move certain to exponentially increase the traffic flowing through the Qik servers.
The only significant ‘hold out’ in the Qik empire has (predictably) been Apple’s iPhone, where using the service currently requires a jailbroken handset running the Cydia Installer application. As Apple continues its usual shroud of secrecy around video capability within the handset (something that is certain to be added in either the upcoming 3.0 firmware or subsequent releases), it is only a matter of time before the ‘Qik’ers get their way and the App Store relents.
The only losers – just the usual crew (i.e. the Mobile Network Operators). Still smarting from the phenomenal success of Skype for iPhone (as well as Android and other mobile handset platforms), the rise of Qik is yet another nail in the coffin of the standard voice & data call plan. As predicted in earlier posts, the next time you renew your mobile contract, don’t count on unlimited data (an area the Operators will need to re-evaluate as iPhone and other smartphones are evolving into data powerhouses capable of removing voice-enabled options completely).
With Qik threatening to out-Twitter even Twitter, and the dawn of simple video blogging at last upon us, the Operators are in dire need of some good news. And fast.
Hopefully wherever they are today, it’s not raining…
With a product codename like Cupcake, how can you help but get excited about the new 1.5 firmware update to Android – pre-released late last night to the registered Android development community? Although details are foggy, and the upgrade path for existing handsets already ‘in the wild’ has not been established, the Android developer community is no doubt bracing itself for a raft of new features set to rival the early buzz of iPhone’s 3.0 release expected sometime in May.
Based on the famed ‘Cupcake’ branch of the open source OS, the new firmware (pre-release downloads available here) will include a full homescreen framework for developing widgets, live folder access (meaning any folders within the handset can be populated with content on the fly), virtual keyboards, and even speech recognition. Furthermore, the new SDK is expected to provide backward compatibility to the 1.1 firmware – meaning developers will have the option to create apps for both the existing 1.1 OS and the new 1.5 update – something far more ‘friendly’ than iPhone SDK updates of the past. The impressive list of all updates and features is available to view here.
Over the next few weeks as developers take the new SDK out for a spin, we’ll get a better grasp at what is truly possible – but the early signs should quickly douse any expectation that the iPhone will remain the uncontested ‘king’ of application development. While reports of iPhone developers defecting to the open source camp due to stringent App Store policies have been greatly exagerrated, it is clear Google does not intend to sit idly by this Summer while the likely release of updated iPhone models in June and the new 3.0 firmware release in May sweep up the mobile accolades.
With recent reports projecting up to a dozen new Android-capable handsets in the next few months care of Samsung, Sony Ericsson, and even Dell, Google’s little Cupcake may yet prove a decisive treat in the ongoing battle for next-generation smartphone supremacy.
Earlier this week, iTunes announced its new variable-based charging system creating a sliding pricing scale of its downloadable music offering (anywhere from $0.69 – $1.29 per track). Overnight it was reported that Wal-Mart and Amazon have immediately followed suit, now offering track downloads for as much as $1.29 each.
What we are witnessing, friends, is perhaps the beginning of the end for premium music. iTunes has attempted to justify its price hike pointing out that most tracks sold at the higher price point are in fact DRM-free. Guess what, so is the music available via torrent sites, or even YouTube. In fact, YouTube-based streaming of music tracks is now becoming the default standard amongst under-18′s (the very target the music labels + Apple + Wal-Mart + Amazon are in the process of alienating!).
While I hate to follow suit with the ‘ever-fashionable’ bashing of the music industry, I find it amazing how they continue to rely on a proven and dated model of revenue generation (licensing) in an age where I can launch Spotify or YouTube or xTorrent or Last.fm, and listen to any artist or track I want – for FREE. How many economists and futurists, bar graphs and forecasts will it take before the music industry realises they are fighting a losing battle – and not to sound overly ‘maternal’, but shame on Apple and Amazon for squeezing the last life out of the flailing industry in the process.
As Spotify has shown, commercial music can survive on the radio-model – free to listen (with paid-for advertising), or a (reasonable) premium upgrade price for commercial-free streaming. Downloading should be no different. By reducing the friction involved in content (as Google is doing in China), online audience reach increases – thereby spawning a number of alternative business models (with advertising being the most obvious). As Gerd Leonhard proposes, we will very likely see a shift to flat rate billing models, a paradigm of ‘feels free’, where users get access to unlimited music downloads, but via an established and recurring contract (whether with an ISP, Gateway, or Portal) generating substantial revenue in ‘lost license’ fees – revenue that would likely surpass the pay-per-track model we are seeing today.
The music industry is not alone in ‘mineralising’ (to steal a phrase from Jean Paul-Sartre) their outlook on future business models. This week the United States newspaper industry is meeting in San Diego to discuss, among other pressing issues, what the *&% to do aboard their sinking ship. In an impassioned speech – that should have been – to attendees of the NAA (Newspaper Association of America) convention, Blogger Jeff Jarvis preaches:
“You blew it. You’ve had 20 years since the start of the web, 15 years since the creation of the commercial browser and craigslist, a decade since the birth of blogs and Google to understand the changes in the media economy and the new behaviors of the next generation of – as you call them, Mr. Murdoch – net natives. You’ve had all that time to reinvent your products, services, and organizations for this new world, to take advantage of new opportunities and efficiencies, to retrain not only your staff but your readers and advertisers, to use the power of your megaphones while you still had it to build what would come next. But you didn’t.”
A bit harsh perhaps, but the message is no doubt sound.
Contrary to Mr. Jarvis, however – I still retain a postive outlook (perhaps a tad guarded) for the future of both the music and newspaper industries. With the realisation of new business models such as flat rate billing for media (music, films, television) and increased technical efficiency for major media brands (ahem – mobile! – see: iPhone/Android, etc), there is still time to right the ship. Albeit that iceberg is looking mighty large right about now…
